For the past two decades CPM-led Left Front was the axis around which parties opposed to Congress and BJP would gather for a " third front". In 1996, CPM leader Jyoti Basu almost became prime minister but his party decided otherwise. In 2004, CPM-led Left provided crucial support to the UPA government and influenced government policies. But as the 2014 elections draw near, CPM is no longer being seen as a significant player at the national level.
Rather, AAP has managed to pull off what CPM has always wished to. It has emerged as an alternative to both Congress and BJP in the capital. Electoral success in Delhi has led to enthusiasm for AAP in other parts of the country.
Many issues that are being raised by AAP are similar to that of the Left. When CPM emerged as a major force in late 1970s, its strength lay in raising bread and butter issues of ordinary people, like farmers and workers. But that appeal of the Left has waned over time even within its support base among the poor.
Left ideologue Ashok Mitra in a recent commentary held economic liberalization as a possible factor for the weakening of the Left but also blamed "lack of imagination on the part of its leadership" for its spectacular decline in regions where it held sway till recently. Dissident Left leader Prasenjit Bose feels "pro-Congress" tilt of CPM precluded any major movement by the Left against corruption scandals. Bose also blames "disconnect" of CPM with issues like price rise, contract labour and violence against women.
What started as a civil society movement for Lokpal bill two years ago has been translated by AAP into a multi-class alliance, promising to eradicate the difference between "us (aam admi)" and "them (netas and babus)". While the middle class youth has been moved by the anti-corruption crusade, the promise of affordable bijlipani has drawn poor slumdwellers towards AAP.
In contrast, CPM-led Left faced a rout in the West Bengal Assembly polls in 2011, with Mamata Banerjee cashing in on the popular discontent against the Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee government. The urban and rural poor have moved away from the Left in Bengal. Even two-and-half years after its rejection by people, there is no sign of a course correction. The CPM in Bengal is now staring at a meltdown of its oncefamed organisational set-up. A depleted electoral strength of the Left from Bengal will only lead to its diminution at the national level.
Is the one-year-old AAP trying to capture the anti-establishment space being vacated by CPM-led Left at the national level? In a recent interview to Economic Times, AAP strategist Yogendra Yadav said the party is "socialist" in its objectives but won't be "silly" about how it achieves those objectives. He said the AAP government will attempt to reduce inequality and poverty through whatever policy mix that best achieves these outcomes.
The AAP website says: "If the solution to a problem lies on the Left we are happy to consider it. Likewise if it is on right (or in the centre) we are equally happy to consider it." But it has targeted corporates for corruption and inflated power bills.
Another noteworthy feature is that AAP is steering clear of alliances with established regional parties, which CPM-led Left is trying to bring together for a "third front". The handling of riot victims staying in refugee camps near Muzaffarnagar by the Akhilesh Yadav government must be causing embarrassment for CPM. Akhilesh's father Mulayam was accorded centrestage at the "anti-communalism" convention sponsored by the Left in October.
What is to be seen though is the extent to which AAP is capable of extending its political base outside the national capital region, which taken together does not account for more than a dozen Lok Sabha seats. The nature of alliances AAP builds will also be watched with interest. The CPM failed to substantially expand its sphere of influence beyond the three states. Can AAP succeed where CPM failed?
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