India does not want to leave a vacuum in Maldives which has already seen too many outside powers fishing in troubled waters.
In the past year, the persistent political instability saw Pakistani jihadi groups making forays into Maldives, which appears ripe for an Islamist wave. The US also wanted to stitch a status of forces agreement with Male that India opposed. Maldives plays a vital security role for New Delhi in the Indian Ocean, and, in 2008, it was brought under the Indian security umbrella. Former president Waheed received an US assistant Secretary of State, Bob Blake, who proposed the agreement. Waheed would have agreed if India did not weigh in with Washington. India reckons that if the US sets up bases in Maldives, China would find some reason to make its own presence felt. Both these would impact India negatively.
Yameen, whose ascent to the top job has brought a return of the influence of the Gayoom family - former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom's daughter Dhunya is the new foreign minister - in his first message said, "I prioritize relations with India, and am keen on finding ways to enhance the longstanding close friendly ties between our two countries." Relations between Maldives and India nosedived after former president Waheed's government cancelled GMR's airport contract. (Yameen's party, PPM, voted against the contract).
In retaliation, India cancelled $25 million credit installment to punish Maldives after the GMR decision. However, with Maldives' budget in deep deficit, India, which feels it cannot possibly abandon such a close neighbour, is likely to release the money when Yameen arrives on December 22. Yameen will be chief guest at the convocation of the SAARC-established South Asian University (SAU) here.
Yameen has said his first task is to revive the economy, with the country's sovereign debt rising sharply, combined with falling revenues. They have a huge problem financing their budget deficit. But the Yameen government has not abandoned China. Recently, Maldives announced China would give them 50 million yuan in grant aid.
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